Iran is the fastest growing scientific power

Iran has become the fastest growing scientific power. Such a conclusion is made in the company’s report Science-Metrix, which examined the drafters of the development of science in the world in the last 30 years. Frantic desire to conquer the scientific Olympus was observed not only in Iran but in general in the Middle East – according to the findings of the report, the science in them developed in four times faster than the average. The reader can imagine that in the foreseeable future at the conference, researchers will gather in Tehran, a major scientific journals will go to farsi. But if the careful reading of the report more carefully, the future of mankind seems somewhat different.

Status of research activities in the countries studied, the drafters of the report estimated the number of publications in scientific journals, go around the world. The paper notes that since 1980 the number of articles in various fields of science, written by specialists from the Middle East, has increased markedly. The most prolific among Middle Eastern countries was Iran – for 30 years the number of articles published by scientists from the Islamic Republic has increased 11 times compared to the world average. Second place was taken by Turkey to the increasing number of publications in 5,5 times.

Actually, in these countries, a list of scientific record-breakers in the Middle East ends. Is it that you can mention Cyprus, Oman and the UAE with their growth in the 3,5, 3,2 and 2,7 times. In other countries (with few exceptions) the number of articles increased by not more than 1,5 times. Thus, a marked increase in scientific activity can only speak for the two countries, the others show good or average.

In addition, the increase in the number of articles – a relative measure. And what happens if we turn to the absolute figures? In Iran in the 80 years of the last century, the number of articles varied in the region of several tens. Since 1989 there has been a slight increase, and by 1999 the country came about a thousand articles. Ten years later, scholars of the Islamic Republic published 12 thousand articles a year. The interactive chart, available at Science-Metrix, the differences between the beginning and end of a 30-year period visible with the naked eye.

However, they immediately disappear if we add to the schedule of the United States. In 1980, America started with a mark 170 thousand articles a little. In 1989 this figure exceeded 200 thousand. In 2008, the number of publications reached a record of almost 280 thousand, and then dropped below 260 thousand. To compare the situation with the release of scientific papers in Iran and the U.S. is perfectly apt expression of “I forgot more than you ever knew.”

East-West
Absolute figures for another contender for global leadership in science – in China, more like the U.S., not Iranian figures. In 2009, experts from the Middle Kingdom have published more than 120 thousand articles. In 1999, the articles were four times less, but still twice that in Iran today. Given that in 1980 the difference in the number of publications in China, and Iran was vanishingly small.

In compiling the report employees Science-Metrix used data agency Thomson Reuters. In early February, the agency issued its own report, which assessed the degree of development of Russia’s science. According to the results of the study was made desolate conclusion: “The development of scientific activity in Russia is experiencing great difficulties, and the chance to rectify the situation are small.” Close analysis presented in the report data showed that in Thomson Reuters sees the situation much more promising than it actually is.
 
If you put on a timetable for the growth curves of the Iranian and Chinese publications (in the illustration at right), it is clearly seen that the Chinese curve goes up so secure that in the foreseeable future Iran will not be able to catch up. The rate of growth in the number of scientific articles is impressive, but do not forget that until recently the science in the country were not there, and in order to overtake the current leaders of the Islamic Republic will take years. Thus if the rate of a little fall, the prospect of reach of any competitive level moves away to infinity. And the likelihood that the country of the Persians will not be able to maintain the current growth rate is very high.

As the authors of the report, the science in Iran began to develop in spite of prevailing circumstances, and not because of them. Strong growth has coincided with the Iran-Iraq conflict, when Iraq was supported by many countries and the Islamic Republic has actually become a pariah. Staff Science-Metrix believe that being in a very precarious position of Iran threw all their forces to develop nuclear weapons. This thesis is supported by the figures: in 1980 the number of articles published in Iran in nuclear physics and elementary particle physics has increased in 84,5 (sic!) Times. However, an appeal to the absolute figures of a few blurs the image of Iran as a nuclear power: the number of publications over the past 30 years has increased from 10 to 845. The leader in absolute figures in Iran is chemistry (more than 10 thousands of articles over the past 10 years).

On the other hand, China and other Asian Tigers developed their science in peace and harmony with other nations. Therefore, to overcome the same steps, which once upon a time by trial and error mastered the West, Asian countries took much less time. More Asia accelerated numerous collaborations with the U.S. and Europe. If you believe this report, Thomson Reuters, from 2003 to 2008 the number of works carried out by Chinese scientists with counterparts from the U.S. and Britain, has more than doubled.

Especially those from the Middle Kingdom have succeeded in science and engineering. Compilers of the report predict that by 2010 China will publish more work in these fields of knowledge than the U.S. (by total number of scientific articles Podnebesnaya equal the U.S. in 2015). In life sciences (biology, anthropology, medicine, sociology …) birthplace of Mao Zedong still lags behind. However, the United States for the past 30 years is not very successful in these disciplines – a relative increase of new articles was less than the world average.

In 1980, in scientific journals around the world were published 450 thousand articles. In 2009 the number was 1.5 million. Slightly less than a third of these works (29 percent) were published in Asia. Scientists from the countries of Europe have published 36 per cent of the total number of articles, and American experts – 28 percent. At the same time in 1980 in the United States has been published for 43 per cent of all scientific publications in Europe – 41 per cent and in Asia – 11 percent.
 
In the West, the vectors of science for the United States and Europe diverged. In the U.S., the number of new articles in recent years started to decline, while Europe stands firm on their positions. According to the drafters of the report from the downturn EU countries saves just a tendency to unite the scientific potential of different countries. And since a considerable part of the joint work is written with the participation of experts from Asia, each of them, not only does Europe slip into negative, but also adds an additional plus East.

In the countries of the Eastern bloc science developed in a fairly predictable ways. In all the countries of the former Soviet Union except the Baltic states the number of published scientific papers after the collapse of the Union has fallen dramatically. Small increase, and even then not in all states, there has been since 2006. Thus for countries in the west of the Baltic States, the trend was of opposite nature: the fall of the Iron Curtain catalyze the restoration of their science. On the situation in Russia in more detail can be read here.

No revolutions
In the end I would like to mention one very important respect: the increasing number of scientific publications do not necessarily correlate with the number of high-quality research papers. To determine how significant research to science, there is another option – citation index, calculated on the basis of the number of options for a particular job in the works of other authors. By number of scientific papers, rather, it is possible to judge whether or not developed in one state or another science. And in fact, it is estimated the company’s report in Science-Metrix.

The trends identified in the report are not surprising. China and other Asian countries are gaining strength and influence of the West is gradually falling, even though he desperately fighting for their positions. Upsurge in Turkey and Iran drew the attention of (authoritative scientific journal Science said it is so so), but it is unlikely that these states in the near future become serious players in the scientific field.

Translated From Russian lenta.ru