All sailed the end of the world?

Concussive report submitted to the days of the Scientific Committee of Antarctic Research. Should environmentalists fear the projections?

Ecologists have published his forecast in the latest edition of The Times. According to scientists, sea level rise on the 1.4 meter “in the first half of the XXI century will lead to flooding of many states. Become submerged Maldives and the Pacific archipelago of Tuvalu, Bangladesh and the entire coast of the Indian Ocean. Victims of disaster will be almost all European cities, located just above sea level. Shanghai, Alexandria, Boston, New York, Venice – all will be on the verge of diving into the water. Europe and the U.S. will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to protect against floods, which will lead the state to bankruptcy. International conflicts will arise for drinking water and agricultural land. Nearly 10 percent of earthlings have to withdraw from their homes. Refugees will 100 million people in Asia, 14 million Europeans and 8 million in Africa and South America. But Antarctica is simply melted.

- Sea level rise – a process that can not be stopped – told reporters German professor from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, one of the authors of the forecast, Stefan Ramstorf. – The only way to curb it to a manageable level – now start to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

So all – sailed to the end of the world? Even if Russia is not flooded, then shall flow together much of the river of refugees into our territory for sure. Can I save the Earth and us with it? With this issue we turned to the Deputy Director of the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology RAS and Alexander Nakhutin.

- First, it raises suspicions when the appearance of this publication – once doubted the seriousness of the predictions of their foreign colleagues, Alexander Ilyich. – After a week in Copenhagen climate conference opens. And there are a number of forces that are interested in making it a very radical solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is possible that the published report submitted to the interests of certain lobbies.

And secondly, from these data that the report forecasts a long way. Sea-level rise – only one of the alleged (!) Scenarios of future impacts of climate change. And up to 1,4 meters, water can rise, but gradually and over 100 years! That is, in any case, there will be time to prepare for the cataclysm by building a dam, dam. Construction and relocation of people, of course, will cost dearly. But to the extent possible.

- And help save us from climate catastrophe limit emissions of greenhouse gases?

- Unfortunately, this measure is not the only possible one. Indeed, in addition to anthropogenic factors, there is the natural climate of the planet. Generally, in the scientific sense, climate change – this is very complicated and not fully investigated the problem. And political decisions, in fact, ahead of scientific knowledge, which is fraught with many costs.

- What might take now?

- I am not prepared to issue such prescriptions. The only thing sure in reducing greenhouse gas emissions must involve all of humanity. Not only developed countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol, but most developing countries, to which they are completely unprepared.